Better Decisions through Science; October 2000; Scientific American Magazine; by John A. Swets, Robyn M. Dawes, John Monahan; 6 Page(s)

Aphysician stares at a breast x-ray, agonizing over whether an ambiguous spot is a tumor. A parole board weighs the release of a potentially violent criminal. A technician at an airport worries over a set of ultrasound readings: do they suggest a deadly crack in an airplane's wing?

All these people are grappling with diagnostic decisions. In spite of incomplete or ambiguous evidence, they must determine whether or not a certain condition exists (or will occur). Such problems abound in health care, public safety, business, environment, justice, education, manufacturing, information processing, the military and government. And the stakes can be high. In many cases, a wrong verdict means that people will die.